Redistricting researcher Dr. Romero was accused of being "inaccurate" when she explained that Black and Latinos are an underrepresented proportion of voters
POLITICS Moments ago the Long Beach Independent Redistricting Commission heard a summary report from Dr. Romero on what to expect once she finishes crunching the numbers to assist Long Beach in its redistricting process.
Although the latest numbers are only cursory, she was clear that the final report is expected to reveal a story of disenfranchised voters along race and class in Long Beach.
“This is a story you are going to see throughout every Council District in Long Beach.” - Dr. Romero
One particular Commissioner didn't care for Dr. Romero's gloomy forecast. His controversial charges underscored how race and hot button issues such as illegal immigration are still points of contention we haven't seen the last of.
Here are the big takeaways from today’s commission meeting.
Leading the Redistricting Effort
Dr. Mindy Romero, the founding Director of the Center for Inclusive Democracy is steering the research side of the nearly year long redistricting process in Long Beach. Housed at the University of Southern California, Dr. Romero’s bio says that “she is often called upon by the state legislature” as well as and the media to “advise on the state’s most disenfranchised communities.”
Based on the data presented to the Commission today, Long Beach appears to be the sort of disenfranchised community Dr. Romero has made a career advising.
Which Districts are Growing?
Dr. Romero noted that there are more than 85 neighborhoods in Long Beach. Half of Long Beach neighborhoods experienced a slight decline in total population while the other half experienced a slight increase.
"Growth is virtually flat,” said Dr. Romero.
Dr. Romero did use two 9th District neighborhoods to make an important point. Looking at the neighborhoods of Houghton Park and St. Francis, she explained the racial and
ethnic group make-up that led to the 15.7% increase in Houghton Park and the 26.6% increase in St. Francis Park.
An interesting local observation is that near Houghton Park, is the new UpTown Commons commercial district. Whereas St. Francis and Collins are 9th District neighbors considered a 'nicer part of the District'. Anymore east and you’d be sitting in a living room in Lakewood.
Since 2010, every ethnic group except Blacks grew in St. Francis. Latinos, in fact, represented the biggest percentage increase into St. Francis jumping from 30% in 2010 to 43% currently. Black residency declined by 6% in St. Francis within that same time frame.
Dr. Romero used this example to put into context that while city-wide growth was flat, when examining Long Beach from the neighborhood level, the changes were more magnified and revealing.
Commissioner Ortiz, expressed her worry that the true “narrative” and “context” of the character of communities that can change from street to street may not be reflected in Romero's number-driven report.
As an example she mentioned that “District 7 has been left behind and under invested in” because it is “bifurcated” by the LA River and therefore not valued by developers. The commissioner is concerned that this is "the sort of narrative where numbers will not be helpful.”
Dr. Romero had good news. “We are hoping that the report is used along with community testimony,” said Dr. Romero. “It will be mostly a numbers report but we will cite other local data such as the ‘State of Black Long Beach’ .”
Co-Authored by Civil Rights advocate Dr. Alex Norman and Lydia A. Hollie, the State of Black Long Beach supported by a cohort of Black community leaders around 2012.
Sensitive to the important of narrative and context, Dr. Romero explained, “Sometimes the absence of making a point ends up making a point so where we can I will bring in other reports that have been done on the local level.”
Population and Race
According to Dr. Romero, “5 council districts experienced a slight increase in total population.” On the other hand, “4 council districts experienced a slight decrease in total population”.
But it was Dr. Romero’s point about a “wide variation in the diversity of council districts” that was most controversial with Commissioners.
For instance, in the 1st, 6th and 9th Districts the voting age of their respective Latino populations is greater than 40%. These districts are also among the most underserved in Long Beach.
Notably, in the 9th District the voting age population among Latino’s is inching toward 50%.
However in the more affluent 3rd, 4th and 5th Districts the white voting age population is more than 75% in District 3, over 65% in District 5 and just over 45% in District 4.
The greatest percentages of the Black voting age population are in District 6 at 20%, District 8 at 23% and District 9 at over 22%. Blacks also have double digit percentages in Districts 1 (17.4%) and 7 (16.7%).
Basically, Long Beach’s Council Districts are color coded. While Dr. Romero calls it “diversity” another word might be “segregated”.
The “Over-Representation” Debate
Race and the idea of “over-representation” versus “under-representation” took center stage at the Commission meeting and will likely be the precursor to the city-wide debate once the final report is presented.
In District 3, only 1.2% of registered voters are Black while Black registered voters make up 8.8% of registered voters in Long Beach. Whereas in the same District over 80% of registered voters are White. This figure is relatively high considering that only 53.7% of registered voters in Long Beach are White. In District’s 4 and 5 the data disparity is similar.
Researchers like Dr. Romero call this “over-representation”.
Over-representation is when the percentage of registered voters in a council District (80% of District 3 registered voters are White) outweighs the percentage of registered voters city-wide (53.7% of Whites are registered to vote city-wide). That’s about a 26% point spread.
When compared to their proportion of registered voters “Whites are over represented among registered voters in Long Beach,” said Dr. Romero. On the other hand blacks are “well under represented among Long Beach registered voters”.
However, District 6 is one District where blacks are “over-represented” considering their proportion of registered voters. Notably, this District did not re-elect its three term Black Councilman in the past November election.
Now to the controversy.
Commissioner Cooper took some issue with Dr. Romero’s analysis that Long Beach Latino’s were “under represented” as a proportion of registered voters.
The Commissioner challenged whether under-representation among Latinos was actually the result of their illegal immigration status. “The census is not allowed to ask questions about immigration status,” said Commissioner Cooper.
He added that “if there is a large voting age population that chooses not to look at themselves as eligible to vote then saying that they are ‘under represented’ is not accurate.
In defense of her expertise, Dr. Romero explained that her team is “not taking into account whether a group ‘considers itself disenfranchised’ ” As an example, she provided that parolees may not know they are indeed eligible to vote.
Rather matter-of-factly, Dr. Romero quipped “When people don’t participate it is because there a lot of barriers to participating and not because they don’t want to participate.”
Seniors
Dr. Romero also present some data related to Long Beach seniors. With just a bit over an 11% senior population Long Beach has 4% fewer residents 65 and over than both LA County and the state of California.
This data is important as we reflect on our touch-and-go performance with vaccinating the elderly in Long Beach. However, even with a relatively smaller percentage of seniors, Governor Newsom - for what it’s worth - praised Long Beach as a model for the COVID 19 vaccination.
Household Income, Poverty and Homelessness
At $63,017, the median household income in Long Beach is $5,000 lower than the same figure in LA County. Additionally, Long Beach is trailing behind the median household income in California by more than $12,000. The disparity is a little better when we look at per capita income.
It’s important to note that poverty is higher among Blacks and Latinos. “Especially depending on what area of the geography you look at,” said Dr. Romero.
But it’s when we look at the poverty numbers that we begin to form a clearer picture as to what is at the root of Long Beach’s housing and homelessness problem. Poverty stands tall at 16.8% in Long Beach according to American Community Survey, 2015-2019 5-year estimates. That puts us at more than 3% higher than LA County and 5% worse off (higher) than the state.
Who knows what Dr. Romero’s researchers will find when her team reports more current data in the coming months.
Commissioner Melody, empathetically raised the question of how Dr. Romero would account for the unhoused.
In a regretful tone, Dr. Romero explained, “We are at the mercy of the census data and its ability to accurately count the unhoused… there are limitations with that.”
Dr. Romero added that her team has “not identified any additional source that is available at the Long Beach level.”
Perhaps our Multi-Service Center may be of some assistance.
LGBTQ And Environment Data
Dr. Romero’s research has plans to stretch far beyond census data. She is guiding her team to gather important LGBTQ data using algorithms and data from the state and voter registration. Her team also intends to dive into identifying ethnic subgroups that aren’t as detectable from census data.
Especially important to Long Beach, Dr. Romero will also collect environmental data including pollution mapping. Given our challenges with port pollution, wetland destruction, park inequity and environmentally related health conditions such data is a breath of fresh air.